2016-2017 Playoff Predictions

April 11, 2017, Micah Blake McCurdy, @IneffectiveMath

I have cajoled my predictive model Cordelia into a playoff prediction model. Curious readers will find lots of detail in that link, but the short version is that I consider offence and defence, shooting and goaltending results, special teams, penalties drawn and taken, rest, and home ice advantage. Injuries, suspensions, and likely roster compositions are taken into account.

For each matchup, I simulated a hundred plausible lineups, given injuries and coaches' past allotments of icetime, and computed a probability for the home ice team using Cordelia. Different teams benefit in different amounts from home ice advantage because of their different strengths and weaknesses.

This bracket shows the probabilities for each team to win each round. Numbers smaller than 10% are not shown.

This is the same information in slightly different form, for those who want to see numerals for each team instead of just shapes. Rounding causes some of the series probabilities to not sum to 100%.